3 November 2011

Blue Jays in the Free Agent Market


Wouldn’t it be great if come April Albert Pujols was starting at first base for the Blue Jays? Yes. Will this happen? Probably not. The MLB free agent market has just opened and, although the field isn’t deep, the Jays could do some damage. Our only big contracts are ones to Yunel Escobar, Jose Bautista and Ricky Romero, so the Jays are free to do a lot. We, right now, have the fourth lowest payroll in the American League, but we can easily change that. We need a second baseman (Kelly Johnson will be a free agent) we need some help in the bullpen, maybe the starting rotation and an everyday centre fielder wouldn’t hurt. I also wouldn’t mind trading Adam Lind but I know that isn’t going to happen. Either way, though, almost all of our needs can be found in the free agent market.

Let me start with the single worst aspect of the Blue Jays’ game last season, the bullpen. Our bullpen blew us 25 saves in a mere 58 opportunities, that is good for the worst save percentage in the majors. By save percentage I don’t just mean the ninth inning, either, I mean after the starter is pulled and the team has a lead. Now I am not sure if Alex Anthopolous (who has done a great job thus far) is willing to bring in a bunch of bullpen guys, but he should. The star-studded free agent bullpen pitchers include: Johnathon Papelbon (0.93 WHIP this season) Ryan Madson (32 saves) Heath Bell (40+ saves in 3 consecutive seasons) Fransisco Rodriguez (good, best years may be behind him) and Johnathon Broxton (missed last 130 games, high risk signing him, most likely to come to Toronto.) We also need a left handed reliever because right now Luis Perez is the lone southpaw. If Anthopolous doesn’t sign one of these guys or make a trade for a legitimate closer, then this offseason will have been a failure.

Position players: Need: 2B. Could improve: Everywhere except RF, 3B and C
The best case scenario would be for the Jays to sign reigning NL batting champion Jose Reyes (SS) and just move Yunel to 2B, but that probably won’t happen. I know there is talk of getting Aaron Hill back, but we traded him for a reason, I don’t want him back. Anthopolous will most likely have to trade for a second baseman, his first look to go should probably be Colby Rasmus.

Bringing in Grady Sizemore would probably be the best move for the Jays to improve the outfield, but many of us forget that Travis Snider does have the potential to be a 30 home run hitter. Other options include Johnny Damon as OF/DH, Jimmy Rollins as backup infielder, and, of course, either Prince Fielder or Pujols would be nice too. I can’t realistically see the Jays signing any more than one of these players, but Anthopolous knows where the team is right now better than anyone, and I trust him.

Starting Pitchers: Need #2/3 starter. Could improve: #4 starter
The Jays have more than their fair share of #4/5 starters on the active roster. (By #5 I mean the fifth best starter in the rotation) Dustin McGowan, Luis Perez and Jesse Listch can all pitch in this spot, but none of them can pitch in the #2 slot. Brandon Morrow could, but he will probably go 14-12 next year with a 3.80 ERA and 400 K’s, #3 starter material. Kyle Drabek has the stuff… Man, if I had a nickel for every time I have heard that. Obviously big name starter C.J. Wilson would help out the Jays, but he isn’t what we are looking for so Anthopolous won’t sign him. Mark Burhle isn’t what we are looking for either, but he would be a great addition to our pitching staff. We can expect 10-15 wins from him, but his real value will be a veteran presence on one of the youngest pitching staffs in the majors. Other free agent starting pitchers include: Edwin Jackson (extremely inconsistent) Yu Darvish (Chinese Phenom, will end up in New York or Boston) I really can’t see Anthopolous signing any of these guys, so we may be stuck with the same pitching staff (including Kyle Drabek, hopefully) as last season, unless he makes some trades.
This could be an extremely productive offseason, or the Jays could sit back. Either way, I have high hopes, and PREDICTION: The Jays will be in the playoffs before the 2014 season.

On a side note, the best player in the Major Leagues over the last two seasons is Jose Baustista, and he just won his second straight Silver Slugger award as well as becoming only the third player in history to win back-to-back Hank Aaron awards.


Until Albert Pujols hits 50 HR's for the Jays,
- Riley